By Chad Reuter, NFLDraftScout.com,
February 18, 2008

Indianapolis -- The most important NFL draft event is the National Invitation Camp, otherwise known as "the Combine", a convention of sorts held in Indianapolis each February. Legions of 40 or more people per team (General Manager/other execs, coaches, scouts, and doctors) descend on Indy for a week as the National Football Scouting service (NFS) invites more than 325 of the top seniors and underclassmen to be tested physically and mentally. This event amounts to a track meet and weeklong job interview. Two-thirds of the participants are drafted, comprising 80% of draftees and almost the entire top 100. Many undrafted Combine participants sign free agent contracts.

It was first held in its current form in 1984 but the concept of "combining" workouts began in the 1970’s. Gathering prospects from multiple campuses in one place reduces teams’ travel expenses and provides uniform testing conditions. Other combines go on throughout the country during the spring, usually bringing together players from smaller schools. The talent pool at those events is considerably weaker than it is in Indianapolis.

Historically, National Scouting provided tight security in the RCA Dome for the Combine. But in 2005, the NFL Network televised portions of the workouts for the first time. This brought the casual fan just inside the door to the world of GMs, coaches and scouts…but don’t plan on getting into the parlor.

The lion’s share of the media are still kept out of the Dome for workouts, although a small group will be allowed in the door (far, far away from then NFL folks…and the field, for that matter) for a very limited time for the second straight year. The vast majority watches NFL Network coverage on large TVs and then waits around for NFL staff and players to walk by in Convention Center hallways and hotel lobbies to glean additional morsels of information. Any statements offered by tight-lipped personnel people are taken with a lick of salt, not just a grain. It is not in teams’ best interest to give opinions on which prospects looked good in workouts.

Even before the television coverage began, most important Combine goings-on leaked out. The humbling measurement process, for instance, requires players to parade around in shorts to be looked over by dozens of grown men. A lot of Combine participants play in an all-star game so their true height and weight are already known, but underclassmen and others not playing in all-star games soon discover the tape and scale do not lie. Some players' data needs updating if teams only have times/measures from their junior pro day. The listed height and weight in schools’ media guides? For most players, the height is exaggerated by an inch or more and the weight is in the ballpark…although it’s done in the off-season when they are not at their true playing weight.

NFS also measures the percent body fat for all participants. Two 270-pound players can have very different percent body fats, depending on their nutritional discipline. Teams notice every love handle or undefined bicep muscle on players’ bodies strolling in front of them during the measurement process, often regarding the physique as a proxy for a prospect’s willingness to work on his craft during the off-season.

The "triangle numbers" (height, weight and 40) are the most reported but teams also note the length of their arm and hands. Players with hands smaller than 9" and/or arms shorter than 32" send a red flag to teams. Skill position and defensive secondary players greatly benefit from having large hands and long arms, to firmly grip the ball or create separation to more easily make a reception. Linemen’s hand sizes and arm spans are crucial, especially on the edges, because they lock onto opponents and keep them at a distance. Small hands and short arms don’t automatically eliminate players from drafting consideration. It’s simply another evaluation factor.



Stay on target…

The athleticism test results are most coveted information sought by the media and draftniks. The league publishes the top performers in several tests during its TV coverage, but the full list is the media holy grail of the event. Like candid celebrity home movies, all of the test results are destined to end up on the Internet. The table below approximates target numbers, based loosely on average results from recent Combines.



Top prospects (or players particularly good at one test) easily beat the listed times, jumps and reps. Those will be the players considered the “winners” in Indianapolis. But plenty of players who did not break these marks get drafted. Besting these figures, though, keeps teams focused on a player’s football prowess rather than questioning their athletic ability.



Getting testy

The names of the tests give away their composition. Players jump straight up in the vertical and straight forward in the broad, without a step forward for momentum. These jumps display a prospect's explosiveness, which is used not only by WR/DB for jump balls but also OL/DL to move or quickly gain leverage their opponent. Bench press repetitions of 225 pounds are the standard. Most all players need upper body strength to excel. QB and WR generally do not lift, unless they choose to do so to showcase their strength. (See QB Brady Quinn, 2007 draft.)

The most famous drill is unquestionably the 40-yard dash. “The 40” is simply a run of 40 yards starting from a 3-point stance (like all running tests). The 40 shows sustained speed over distance, but the importance of the timed 10 and 20-yard splits within the 40 is underrated. A quick first step is something every coach wants to see. Players spend a lot of time (and money) learning how to get a good start and stay low through at least the first 10-15 yards to minimize drag. Players who hesitate, stumble, or get upright immediately out of their stance cost themselves precious tenths or hundreds of a second.

Teams downplay the importance of 40 times in their evaluation process, but everyone in the Dome stops talking and has their stopwatches out while they are being run. Some scouts line up at the 10, some at the 20, and others at the finish line to break down the run in its various segments. Many scouts close one eye when timing, in order to limit the interference with their dominant eye as the player crosses the all-important finish line.

Although 40s get the hype, shuttle runs and the three-cone drill are also used to evaluate whether players have the athleticism crucial to be a successful NFL player. The speed of the game is such that players must have excellent lateral movement and be able to quickly change directions. Good times in these drills trump poor 40s in some evaluators’ minds. In the 20-yard "short" shuttle, players straddle a yard line, run 5 yards in one direction, then 10 yards in the other direction, then 5 yards back to their original starting position. They must touch the ground at each stop except the last. The 60-yard version makes players run 5 yards downfield and back to the starting point, then 10 yards and back, then 15 yards and back, touching the ground at each stop but the last.

The three-cone drill sets cones five yards apart in the shape of the Greek letter lambda, “G”. Players first run back and forth between the first two cones, touching the ground near both; then they run around the second cone, weave inside the third cone and around the outside of both top cones back to the starting line. Fluid completion of this drill is a sight to see, both for scouts and the casual fan. A poor showing reveals a player's lack of athleticism.

The trends in the target numbers do not surprise. Linemen lack the straight-line speed or agility of receivers or corners and safeties. Defensive linemen generally fare better in tests than offensive linemen. There are smaller differences between groups in the shorter running tests than the longer ones. The only real surprises are the amazing numbers all of these athletes put up.



Test results

Good 40s mean bigger contracts. Period. Don’t think so? Check out the average best times (player’s worst times are thrown out) for drafted players since 1999 by the rounds in which they were selected. Quarterbacks were not included because they are not generally held to the same athleticism standards as players at other positions. The 40 times used were the best available numbers on hand, since there are no true “official” times…there are electronic and hand-held timings from NFS, teams, and other sources combined to make a best estimate.




Generally, players doing well in one running test do well in all running tests, barring a stumble…but some players are just better running straight-ahead than moving laterally, and vice versa (examples to be given below). In fact, we see that the numbers in the overall averages table do not always descend throughout the draft…this trend holds true when looking at these figures position-by-position, as well. For example, receivers picked in the first round averaged a best of 4.47 40s in recent years, while second round WRs averaged 4.44. A 6’2”, 215-pound receiver running 4.47 in the 40 is more impressive than a 5’11”, 185-pounder running a 4.44.

The effect of size on a player’s test results also affects the target numbers listed in the first table. Power defensive ends do not run as fast as rush ends, but are expected to put up a greater number of bench reps. Top 3-technique defensive tackles should run closer to 5.0 than 5.10 but the slower time is pretty good for 330 pound nose tackle prospects. Smaller tight ends are more likely to have fullback or receiver-like numbers. Players with longer arms have more difficulty with bench presses than those with shorter arms…they simply have farther to go. Those bench press counts can be tricky, anyway, as some players are credited for reps where the arms are only about half-locked.

In short, the numbers provided here are just targets and averages—not “magic numbers” players must beat to be drafted. And there are many other factors going into the selection of players, from film study to personal issues. But history shows the better you do at the tests, the higher you’re likely to be drafted.

But one question still remains…do athleticism tests actually predict better performance for higher draft picks? Without going into a dissertation on the subject, let’s look at some data showing the relationship between Combine 40 times and the number of games played and started by drafted players, as well as Pro Bowl appearances per season.

Drafted Combine participants from 1999 to 2006 were grouped if their 40 times were in the top third (“above-average” category), middle third (“average”), or bottom third (“below-average”) of all players at their position that were drafted in similar slots. The draft rounds were split into four such slots: round 1, rounds 2-3, rounds 4-5, and rounds 6-7. This was done to ensure an adequate number of players per position in each category. The 2007 rookies were left out because of their lack of NFL experience at this juncture.



So what does all this data tell us? The overall trend of decreasing success as the draft goes on is no surprise. The higher a player is drafted, the more games they are likely to play and start. And even though the Pro Bowl is a bit of a popularity contest, the difference in participation between early and late round picks is still worth noting. This bias towards early picks also comes into play in regular season action, as teams want to give their top selections every possible chance to earn their rookie contracts. But that can only last so long…if later picks are better players, they will supplant their more highly-touted competitors.

We already know that early picks perform better on athleticism tests, on average, than later picks. But separating first and second round picks from sixth and seventh round picks is pretty obvious without a stopwatch. Now the real question becomes: do tests like the 40 really predict how similarly-valued players perform?

The data above hints that in the first round, players with above-average 40 times tend to perform slightly better than counterparts at the same position with below-average 40s. In the later rounds, however, the difference between players in the three 40 time categories was less, or even reversed. So although players with better athleticism test results tend to be drafted higher, and players drafted higher tend to be more successful, there is only a small bit of evidence here that better 40 times among similar players lead to additional success. It is probable that looking at other tests would yield similar results, but further study is needed before making that leap.



Exceptions to the rule

Combine tests are not necessarily the be-all, end-all for players, as the above data suggest. Some have terrific rookie seasons the fall following poor Combine workouts. 2003 draftee WR Anquan Boldin (Florida State) ran slower than most expected at the event. He had a Pro Bowl season after falling to Arizona in the 2nd round. OT Shane Olivea (Ohio State) did not perform well at the 2004 Combine but San Diego took a chance on him in the 7th round. He's been a starter for them ever since. Seattle’s 2005 2nd round investment in “small" ILB Lofa Tatupu, in spite of average (at best) workout numbers, also paid off.

Last year the Giants selected Texas CB Aaron Ross in the first round, despite his rather pedestrian mid-4.5s 40 times, and he looks to be a keeper. Their 7th round pick, RB Ahmad Bradshaw, also played a strong role in their championship season despite running in the mid-4.6’s in his Combine 40s. Like Ross, though, he excelled in the 3-cone and shuttle runs, which shows how all the numbers should be considered when evaluating their athletic attributes.

And there are many examples of players who ran outstanding 40s or otherwise displayed great athleticism but never really panned out. Former Boston College and Philadelphia Eagle DE Mike Mamula is the poster child for staying away from “workout warriors”. Mamula became such a hot commodity after an outstanding Combine performance that he went from a mid-round pick to the seventh overall selection in 1995. He never could live up to those expectations.

There are more recent examples of players with great numbers not having corresponding success on the field. Late first round pick Arkansas CB Ahmad Carroll turned heads with his sub-4.3 40 at Indy, but never really became disciplined enough to use that speed to his advantage. Other very fast corners like Kevin Garrett, B.J. Tucker, and Michael Waddell all put up sub 4.4 40s (and also did very well in the other drills) to get selected in the 5th or 6th rounds but never translated that speed on the field.

Similar stories have happened at every other position. DE Andrew Williams, DT Eddie Freeman, OT Wayne Hunter, RB Trung Canidate, and WR Tyrone Calico are just a few first-third round picks who put up nice numbers but could not produce in the NFL. The reasons for players’ demises vary from injury, personal problems, incompatibility with coaches, and simply being overrated by the team drafting them. But each reach in the draft because of workout numbers is another cautionary tale to the next team.



Necessary evil

Despite the potential pitfalls, testing NFL players is still necessary. An extra one-tenth of a second gains a receiver some room downfield and extra 5 pounds of muscle allows defensive lineman to shed a block and move to the ball carrier. The NFL saying that “fast players play fast” is intuitive…it is very difficult for less athletic players to impact what’s going on between the lines.

NFL personnel men often say a player’s draft status is not hurt by poor workouts or all-star game performances. But if someone moves up the board, someone else must move down. The tiebreaker among the top players who check out on tape and in off-field issues is often the athleticism they show in testing.

The talent difference between players drafted in the late rounds is so small that one outstanding characteristic makes someone stand out, whether it’s a great vertical jump, outstanding 40 time or something outside the numbers (i.e. a great interview, excellent college production). So although players overcome disappointing measurements to have nice NFL careers, Combine tests can be the difference between being drafted early or late…or not at all.

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