J.J. McCarthy

OVERVIEW

As of mid-March, J. J. McCarthy is fast becoming the most overrated NFL quarterback prospect in this draft. Let's address what is purportedly McCarthy's most impressive aspect -- a 27-1 record as Michigan's starting quarterback. In perspective it is devalued because he did it with steady but unspectacular play on the most talented team in college football (Michigan had 18 players at the 2024 combine). All McCarthy needed to do was not screw it up. Historically, lots of college quarteracks didn't transfer their success to the NFL, including Kellen Moore (Boise State, 50-3; 0-2 in NFL), Colt McCoy (Texas, 45-8; 11-25 in NFL); Desmond Ridder (Cincinnati, 42-6; 8-9 in NFL) and most recently, Stetson Bennett (Georgia, 29-2) whose persistence raised him from a walk-on two two national championships. Drafted in fourth round by Rams he is out with personal issues.

These are decent comps for McCarthy and we think some of them were better than him. So it is perplexing to see his recent surge that allegedly boosts him up draft boards, with some listing him in the top five. In his March 19 mock, Daniel Jeremiah, NFL.com's current draft savant, placed McCarthy with the Minnesota Vikings at No. 4. C'mon, DJ, really?

Anything's possible, of course and we wish J. J. the best. If the stars, moon and planets align perfectly we see his ceiling as being akin to Alex Smith, which is pretty darn good. We just don't see him as major NFL franchise quarterback. We had trouble justifying him as a first round pick. Perhaps history of some rare quarterbacks has empowered people to overrate prospects beyond all logic. Hindsight on the careers of Tom Brady (199th pick) and Joe Montana (third round) is compelling. Recentlly there is the Brock Purdy effect. He famously parlayed being the final pick of the 2022 draft to leading the 49ers to two playoffs, including last season's Super Bowl. Purdy's success after being the last selection of the 2022 draft created the notion that there are more college quarterbacks lacking obviously superior athletic ability who should get a longer look. OK, that's fair. We looked longer at McCarthy and still don't see why he is suddenly ascending so high on draft lists. 

Surrounded by the best roster in college football, McCarthy basically just didn't screw it up. His was workmanlike and minimized mistakes. His arm is average at best but he throws all passes with the same velocity and doesn't show finesse or touch. His short passes are often too hard and his medium/deep passes tail off.  So while others are boosting McCarthy up the charts, we think McCarthy might become a reliable journeyman backup, but fail to see a future franchise quarterback worth a high first round pick. He's a great guy and we would love to be wrong. 

ANALYSIS

Stengths: 

Like his intense college coach, McCarthy plays with a chip on his shoulder which served him well as a college leader. J. J. has balls-to-the wall leadership ability and self-confidence. On an uber-talented team McCarthy wasn't asked to carry the load, just guide it and don't mess up. In the rarified air of Michigan football that is a heavy load in itself. He might do well in certain NFL situations, such as the so-called Shanahan offense, which is based on running the ball and spreading defenses laterally. Otherwise his athleticism is not remarkable except for perhaps his durability and toughness. Kind of a lesser version of Harbauch himself. 

Weaknesses:

McCarthy weighs in at 6-2 1/2, 219, but his appearance is smaller than that. In a run-first college offense with an incredibly talented offensive line, McCarthy was a point-and-shoot passing style that seems to fire everything at about the same velocity, which is fine on medium passes inside the hashes, but beyond that he doesn't sustain a driving spin on the ball.

 Frankly:

Although he seems to be the darling of the pre-draft talk, we don't see McCarthy as a top tier quarterback, much in the same way we didn't see Mac Jones as an elite prospect. His focus and determination are impressive and his presence would be good on a roster . If Alex Smith is his absolute high ceiting, we think his reality comp is more like C. J. Beathard, who is probably a future coach. Great college careers don't always translate and we think this is a good example. 

HISTORY — From College Profile

At Michigan
• All-Big Ten selection (third team, coaches, second team, media in 2022)
• Academic All-Big Ten honoree (2022)
• Two-year letterman (2021-22)
• Named the team's Offensive Player of the Year (2022)
• Shared team Offensive Rookie of the Year honors (2021)
• Semifinalist for the Davey O'Brien National Quarterback Award (2022)
• Has appeared in 25 games at quarterback with 13 starts

Sophomore (2022)
• Appeared in all 14 games with 13 starts under center; completed 208-of-322 pass attempts for 2,719 yards (No. 8 single-season, U-M history) with 22 touchdowns (tied-No. 6) and five interceptions; added 306 rushing yards with five touchdowns on 70 attempts to earn his second varsity letter
• All-Big Ten selection (third team, coaches, second team, media)
• Semifinalist, Davey O'Brien National Quarterback Award
• Named the team's Offensive Player of the Year
• Four times, shared Offensive Player of the Game honors for his performance at Iowa, at Indiana, at Rutgers, at Ohio State
• Named one of the Davey O'Brien Great 8 Quarterbacks of the Week following his performance at Indiana
• Shared Offensive Player of the Week honors for his performance against Illinois
• Ran for 50 yards including a 20-yard touchdown run, also went four-of-four passing against Colorado State (Sept. 3)
• In his first career start, went 11-of-12 passing for 229 yards and three touchdowns against Hawaii (Sept. 10)
• Starting against UConn (Sept. 17), completed 15-of-18 passes for 214 yards and had a 14-yard run
• Went 18-of-26 passing for 220 yards with two touchdowns starting against Maryland (Sept. 24)
• Went 18-of-24 passing for 155 yards with a touchdown at Iowa (Oct. 1)
• Registered his first 300-yard game (304) with three touchdowns on 28-of-36 passing at Indiana (Oct. 8)
• In a start against Penn State (Oct. 15), rushed for 57 yards on top of 145 yards passing
• Had one touchdown passing with 167 yards and another 50 yards rushing in a start against Michigan State (Oct. 29)
• Threw two touchdowns on 13-of-27 passing and ran for another at Rutgers (Nov. 5)
• Threw two touchdown passes and ran for another in a start against Nebraska (Nov. 12)
• Starting under center against Illinois (Nov. 19), completed 18-of-34 pass attempts for 208 yards
• Totaled four touchdowns (one rushing) on 12-of-24 passing for 263 yards at Ohio State (Nov. 26)
• Delivered three touchdown passes on 11-of-17 passing for 161 yards and ran for 14 yards against Purdue in the Big Ten Championship (Dec. 3)
• Set a career-high with 343 passing yards on 20-of-34 passing against TCU in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl/CFP Semifinal (Dec. 31), accounting for three touchdowns (one rushing) and two-point conversion rushing; included a career-long 39-yard run

Freshman (2021)
• Appeared in 11 games under center; completed 34-of-59 pass attempts for 516 yards with five touchdowns to two interceptions and added 124 yards rushing and two scores to earn his first varsity letter
• Shared team Offensive Rookie of the Year honors
• In his U-M debut against Western Michigan (Sept. 4), completed 4-of-6 pass attempts for 80 yards with a 69-yard touchdown strike
• Went 4-of-6 passing for 42 yards and moved the chains with a 16-yard rush against Northern Illinois (Sept. 18)
• Completed a 56-yard touchdown strike at Wisconsin (Oct. 2) and added a rushing touchdown, the first of his career, in limited action
• Ran three times for 17 yards and also attempted a pass at Nebraska (Oct. 9)
• Passed five times with three completions for 34 yards against Northwestern (Oct. 23) and ran twice for 36 yards
• Completed three-of-four pass attempts with a 17-yard touchdown pass and three rush attempts at Michigan State (Oct. 30)
• Went 5-of-10 passing for 55 yards and one interception against Indiana (Nov. 6)
• Completed all five pass attempts for 58 yards and one touchdown at Maryland (Nov. 20) and ran for another
• Completed a 31-yard pass and picked up a first down rushing against Ohio State (Nov. 27)
• Went 1-of-3 passing and rushed four times for 23 yards and also threw a key block to spring a touchdown against Iowa in the Big Ten Championship (Dec. 4)
• Registered career-highs with 7-of-17 passing for 131 yards with one touchdown and 24 yards rushing against Georgia in the Capital One Orange Bowl/CFP Semifinal (Dec. 31)

Prep
• Attended IMG Academy (2021) coached by Bobby Acosta
• Also attended Nazareth High School in La Grange Park, Ill., coached by Tim Racki
• Helped IMG finish 8-0 as a senior, out-scoring its opponents 381-82 during the season
• IMG finished the season as the 2020 National Champions; ranked No. 1 in MaxPrep’s final 2020 High School Football Rankings
• Led Nazareth to a 13-1 record and the Class 7A state title as a sophomore in 2018
• Helped Nazareth reach the state title game in 2017 and 2019 as well
• Also played lacrosse at Nazareth
• Academic All-State selection at Nazareth

Key Statistics
• Finished his high school career with a 36-2 record as a starter
• Accumulated 7,905 career pass yards with 94 touchdowns and 13 interceptions
• As a senior, went 92-of-165 passing (57 percent) for 1,392 yards with 16 touchdown passes and no interceptions; added one rushing score
• Threw for 2,820 yards and 34 touchdowns as a junior at Nazareth Academy in La Grange Park (Ill.)
• As a sophomore in 2018, completed 182-of-240 passes (76 percent) for 3,448 yards with 39 touchdowns and four interceptions; also scored two rushing touchdowns

Honors and Rankings
• Earned a 247Sports Composite ranking of five stars; the No. 22 overall player nationally, the No. 2 pro-style quarterback and the No. 7 player in the state of Florida; ranked as the No. 1 player in Illinois
• Named a four-star prospect by 247Sports; the No. 35 overall player in the nation, the No. 3 pro-style quarterback and the No. 9 in the state of Florida
• Member of the ESPN300; four-star prospect, the 23rd overall player nationally, the No. 2 quarterback and the No. 7 overall prospect in the state of Florida
• Rivals.com four-star prospect; 41st-rated prospect in the country, the No. 4 quarterback nationally and the No. 10 player in Florida
• Selected to participate in the 2021 All-American Bowl and 2021 Polynesian Bowl all-star games
• Elite 11 selection
• MasPreps Florida High School Football Player of the Year in 2020
• News-Gazette All-State Illinois Player of the Year (2019); the first underclassman to win the honor in 25 years of eligibility
• Chicago Tribune Offensive Chicago Pioneer Press Offensive Player of the Year (2019)
• Chicago Sun-Times All-Area Selection
• Two-time EDGYTIM/Rivals.com All-State selection in Illinois (2018-19)

 

 

PERSONAL

• J.J. McCarthy was born Jan. 20, 2003
• Son of Jim and Megan McCarthy
• Also an accomplished hockey player

2022

passing
ATT	YPA	PCT	YDS	INT	TD	COMPLETIONS
322.0	8.4	0.646	2719.0	5.0	22.0	208.0

rushing
YPC	TD	YDS	CAR	LONG
4.4	5.0	306.0	70.0	39.0

fumbles
REC	LOST	FUM
0.0	0.0	6.0

2021

passing
ATT	YPA	PCT	YDS	INT	TD	COMPLETIONS
59.0	8.7	0.576	516.0	2.0	5.0	34.0

rushing
YPC	TD	YDS	CAR	LONG
4.6	2.0	124.0	27.0	23.0

fumbles
REC	LOST	FUM
0.0	1.0	3.0