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By Shehan Jeyarajah Jun 19, 2023 at 12:53 pm ET The Big 12 is entering a purgatory, of sorts, in 2023 as the "Freshman Four" of Cincinnati, BYU, Houston and UCF join the conference for a 14-team party before Texas and Oklahoma leave for the SEC. Claiming the most members in conference history for this season, the matchups will be more competitive than ever and lead to some highly competitive betting lines. Of the 14 members, nine have Las Vegas over/unders between five and seven wins. Surprisingly, Houston ranks at the back of the pack with a 5.0 while UCF checks in as the only newcomer projected to make a bowl game with a line of 7.0 wins. Familiar faces are at the top with Texas and Oklahoma each set at 9.5, so the departing powerhouse programs must reach 10 wins just to cash tickets. Texas has not won 10 regular-season games since 2009, while Oklahoma is fresh off its first sub-.500 season since 1998. Where there's mess, there's value to be found. Last season, for example, we were all over the Kansas schools exceeding tiny lines. We totally whiffed on TCU, however, picking them to win under 6.5 in a year it won 13 games. Who will emerge this year? Here are win totals, picks and projected wins and losses for every Big 12 team in 2023 with odds provided by Caesar's SportsBook. Baylor Over/under 6.5 wins Wins: Texas State, Long Island, Texas Tech, at Cincinnati, Iowa State, Houston, West Virginia, at TCU Losses: Utah, Texas, at UCF, at Kansas State Analysis: The Bears' upside will be revealed early as Baylor plays host to Utah in the second week of the season, followed by a Big 12 opener against conference title favorite Texas two weeks later. Both games are at home. If Baylor can pull off a pair of victories, the over is an easy cash. If not, it could come to a decisive November slate -- vs. Houston, at Kansas State, at TCU, vs. West Virginia -- to comfortably reach bowl eligibility. Bears coach Dave Aranda will be hoping that close-game luck flips in 2023. Pick: Over 6.5 (-150) BYU Over/under 5.5 wins Wins: Sam Houston, Southern Utah, Cincinnati, Texas Tech Losses: at Arkansas, at Kansas, TCU, at Texas, at West Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State Analysis: The Cougars are an incredibly difficult team to place. BYU posted one of the worst defenses in the nation in 2022 and are bringing in defensive coordinator Jay HIll, who does not have a simple plug-and-play system. Offensively, the Cougars shift from talented prospect Jaren Hall to journeyman Kedon Slovis -- a talented player who likely doesn't possess the same upside -- at quarterback. BYU coach Kalani Sitake has done a sensational job in Provo, Utah, and the home-field advantage is one of the best in the new Big 12. With a fearsome home slate, will it matter? Pick: Under 5.5 (-105) UCF Over/under 7.0 wins Wins: Kent State, at Boise State, Villanova, Baylor, West Virginia, at Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Houston Losses: at Kansas State, at Kansas, at Oklahoma, at Texas Tech Analysis: The Knights rank as the program among the newcomers best prepared to jump into the Big 12 and have immediate success. UCF returns quarterback John Rhys Plumlee, while Gus Malzahn has spent most of the last two years stocking up on blue-chip transfers. Playing Kansas State, Baylor and Oklahoma in the first half of the schedule will test UCF's mettle, but there are winnable games down the stretch if the Knights can survive the physical barrage. Pick: Over 7.0 (-115) Cincinnati Over/under 5.5 wins Wins: Eastern Kentucky, Miami (Ohio), Iowa State, at Houston Losses: at Pittsburgh, Oklahoma, at BYU, Iowa State, Baylor, at Oklahoma State, UCF, at West Virginia, at Kansas Analysis: The Bearcats have a record of 53-11 over the past five seasons, including a pair of AAC championships and an appearance in the College Football Playoff. But with an exodus of playing and coaching talent, placing Cincinnati in the Big 12 is exceedingly difficult. The Bearcats open their Big 12 tenure with Oklahoma, along with three other recent Big 12 title game participants in the first five games. Cincinnati showed some flaws in the first post-CFP season, especially on offense. Those cracks could open wider with such a difficult schedule amid the transition to Scott Satterfield as coach. Pick: Under 5.5 (-115) Houston Over/under 5.0 wins Wins: UTSA, at Rice, Sam Houston, West Virginia, Texas, Oklahoma State Losses: TCU, at Texas Tech, at Kansas State, at Baylor, Cincinnati, at UCF Analysis: For all intents and purposes, Houston's first season in the Big 12 era is defined by one matchup. The hated Texas Longhorns come to town on Oct. 21 for one of the most anticipated games in program history, their lone matchup before the 'Horns head to the SEC. Dana Holgorsen's last matchup against Texas ended with a legendary 2-point call to shock Texas, and we expect him to bring that chaotic magic to TDECU Stadium. Other than that, the road schedule is difficult, maybe even unmanageable. Still, finding a way to comfortably make a bowl game in Year 1 would signal a great season. Pick: Over 5.0 (+110) Iowa State Over/under 6.0 wins Wins: Northern Iowa, Iowa, at Ohio, Oklahoma State, TCU, Kansas, at BYU Losses: at Oklahoma, at Cincinnati, at Baylor, Texas, at Kansas State Analysis: Kansas State was the most undervalued team in the Big 12 last season. This year, it could be Iowa State. The Cyclones lost six of eight games by one score last season, and another against Oklahoma was marred only by a late Sooners score. Iowa State returns talented quarterback Hunter Dekkers, an improving offensive line and one of the saltiest defenses in the conference. If running back Jirehl Brock can stay healthy, the upside is higher than people realize. Pick: Over 6.0 (+110) Kansas Over/under 6.0 wins Wins: Missouri State, at Nevada, UCF, BYU, at Cincinnati Losses: Illinois, at Texas, at Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, at Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas State Analysis: The Jayhawks will be an improved football team in 2023, but it's hard to tell whether that will translate into more wins after a magical six-win campaign. The home schedule comes with major tests: Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Kansas State. The road schedule is no cakewalk either. Adding a likely loss against Illinois in the nonconference slate makes the job even tougher. Kansas is capable of stealing a game or two, but exceeding six wins feels like a Herculean task with this schedule. Pick: Under 6.0 (-110) Kansas State Over/under 8.0 wins Wins: Southeast Missouri, Troy, at Missouri, UCF, at Oklahoma State, TCU, Houston, Baylor, at Kansas, Iowa State Losses: at Texas Tech, at Texas, Analysis: Last season, Kansas State was arguably the most undervalued team in the nation by Vegas. Oddsmakers set the bar at a bowl game but the Wildcats instead earned their first outright Big 12 title since 2003 after shocking TCU in the Big 12 Championship Game. Several key playmakers are gone from Kansas State's run, but quarterback Will Howard, a talented running back room and an offensive line group filled with returners gives the Wildcats a higher floor than most. Getting all of TCU, Baylor, UCF and Iowa State at home doesn't hurt. Pick: Over 8.0 (-105) Oklahoma Over/under 9.5 wins Wins: Arkansas State, SMU, at Tulsa, at Cincinnati, Iowa State, UCF, at Kansas, West Virginia, at BYU Losses: Texas, at Oklahoma State, TCU Analysis: The Sooners were gifted perhaps the easiest schedule in the Big 12 to rebound from a miserable 6-7 campaign, but setting the bar at 10 wins is still high. The offense lost essentially all of its proven playmakers, while the defense has major gaps to fill after finishing No. 122 nationally in total defense. Close-game luck should normalize after an especially unlucky season, but more than half of Oklahoma's schedule could be coin flip games. Even though the Sooners are down, expect the program to get everyone's best shot -- especially the new additions, who only get to play Oklahoma once as conference opponents. Pick: Under 9.5 (-130) Oklahoma State Over/under 6.0 wins Wins: Central Arkansas, at Arizona State, South Alabama, Kansas, at West Virginia, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, BYU Losses: at Iowa State, Kansas State, at UCF, at Houston Analysis: Oklahoma State is hard to gauge after a Big 12 title game run in 2021 followed by tanking in 2022. The Cowboys are starting from scratch in many ways, replacing longtime quarterback Spencer Sanders with transfer Alan Bowman and hiring Division II defensive coordinator Bryan Nardo to the same position. The word from Stillwater, Oklahoma, is that Mike Gundy is trying to shift his philosophy to better match the modern style of the Big 12, but it could take time. A favorable home schedule should lead to some success. Pick: Over 6.0 (-130) Texas Over/under 9.5 wins Wins: Rice, at Alabama, Wyoming, at Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma, BYU, Kansas State, at Iowa State, Texas Tech Losses: at Houston, at TCU Analysis: I've shorted Texas stock for more than a decade at this point, but it's finally time to cash in. There's zero excuse for the Longhorns to be anything but the best team in the Big 12. They return a former No. 1 quarterback recruit, an excellent offensive line, add weapons to a talented receiver room and boast perhaps the best defender in the Big 12 in linebacker Jaylan Ford. The biggest complication comes in the form of rivalry games as the Longhorns travel to play all of Baylor, Houston and TCU for what could be the final time. No one knows better how much a Texas upset could change fortunes than Holgorsen. Still, the 'Horns deserve to be the Big 12 title favorites and will win 10 regular-season games for the first time since 2009 if they can meet expectations. Pick: Over 9.5 (-140) TCU Over/under 7.5 wins Wins: Colorado, Nicholls, at Houston, SMU, West Virginia, BYU, Texas, at Oklahoma Losses: at Iowa State, at Kansas State, at Texas Tech, Baylor Analysis: TCU joined Baylor and Iowa State over the past three seasons as programs that rode luck in close games to historic seasons. It's worth noting that those two programs went on to post combined 13-13 records after their historic runs. The Horned Frogs have a strong transfer class and talented roster to insulate themselves from completely falling behind, but replacing four All-Big 12 standouts on offense won't be an easy task. The schedule has pitfalls, including playing Iowa State, Kansas State and Texas Tech on the road over a four-game stretch. TCU hits the over, but it could come down to the final week. Pick: Over 7.5 (-150) Texas Tech Over/under 7.5 wins Wins: at Wyoming, Oregon, Tarleton, at West Virginia, Houston, Kansas State, TCU, at Kansas, UCF Losses: at Baylor, at BYU, at Texas Analysis: Expectations are off the charts for Joey McGuire's program in Year 2, so let's add some fuel to the fire. A Week 2 matchup against Oregon ranks as a historic prove-it opportunity for the Red Raiders, especially as former Pac-12 champion quarterback Tyler Shough expects to take the field against his old squad. Getting Kansas State and TCU in Lubbock, Texas, is a huge victory. There's certainly a chance that depth and injuries could cause issues for a relatively green roster, but the upside is serious. Iowa State, Baylor and TCU each rode tight wins to the Big 12 title game over the past three years. In June, Texas Tech looks like the team ready to ride the wave. Pick: Over 7.5 (-110) West Virginia Over/under 5.5 wins Wins: Duquesne, BYU, Cincinnati Losses: at Penn State, Pittsburgh, Texas Tech, TCU, at Houston, Oklahoma State, at UCF, at Oklahoma, at Baylor Analysis: It's hard to find much optimism for West Virginia against a fairly brutal schedule. Games against rivals Penn State and Pittsburgh in the first three weeks leave the program in a tough position. Playing three of the four hungry new additions on the road won't help either. Four of the first five games come against programs that could be in conference championship games; a 1-4 start is essentially expected. Frankly, it's easier to find losses among the wins than wins among the projected losses. Pick: Under 5.5 (-180)