High-Stakes TNF: Playoff Hopes for Rams, Saints to Live and (Almost) Die in L.A.

The Los Angeles Rams (7-7) host the New Orleans Saints (7-7) at SoFi Stadium this Thursday in a game between playoff hopefuls. 

If last Thursday's game in Vegas is a new standard, then the first team to 60 points wins.

The Saints find themselves deadlocked with Tampa Bay atop the league’s weakest division. Short of taking the NFC South outright, New Orleans (and Tampa, for that matter) will most likely be on the outside of the playoffs looking in. Winning tonight puts pressure on the Bucs, who host Jacksonville Sunday.

The Rams are peaking at the right time, winners of four of their last five. They worked their way nto a throng of 7-7 teams, thanks much to the brilliant recent play of Matthew Stafford and Kyren Williams. The second-year running back Williams is tearing up the NFL in the second half of the season, rushing for 655 yards in the last five games. Williams’ surge means he surpassed even San Francisco’s league-MVP candidate Christian McCaffery in rushing yards per game (95.3). 

“He’s made a huge difference,” Rams head coach Sean McVay said of Williams. “When he’s in the lineup and when he is not, it’s a very different theme for us…He has been a big spark plug.”

Obviously, containing Williams will be a theme Saints' coordinator Joe Woods hammers into his defense this week. That unit ranks just 24th in the NFL in defending the run, so if the trends hold, expect Williams to dazzle in his first prime-time showcase. 

Where New Orleans’ defense excels is in defending the air — that pass defense going up against a hot Rams attack will be the most entertaining battle of the night.

Stafford was special the last four weeks, throwing 12 TD passes to one interception, and doing so against the likes of Cleveland and Baltimore, the two best pass defenses in the NFL. So squaring off against New Orleans’ pass defense, ranked No. 7 in the league, should not faze the veteran signal-caller, especially if he continues to get the run dynamic support from Williams.

Stafford’s favorite target, Cooper Kupp, is fully back as the league’s best route runner. New Orleans’ Marshon Lattimore, is close to returning but will most likely miss his fifth straight game. But even during this stretch without their best cornerback, the Saints' pass defense did not allow more than 205 yards passing to any team. A fascinating individual matchup will be Stafford against New Orleans' savvy free safety Tyrann Mathieu, who has intercepted three passes and broke up seven others this season.

On offense, the Saints march in to Thursday’s tilt still on a season-long search for continuity and red-zone consistency. Quarterback Derek Carr put up his most efficient game in weeks against the Giants, completing 23-of-28 with three touchdowns. Carr welcomed back receiver Rashid Shaheed Sunday and hopes for the return Thursday of his top target, WR Chris Olave, who missed the Giants game with an ankle injury. The physical setbacks to Olave, Shaheed and wideout Michael Thomas — out since Week 10 — help explain the Saints’ lurching offensive production. 

So does the mediocre Saints' running game, which did not crack 120 yards in the last three games. For the Saints to score enough points to beat the Rams, Alvin Kamara needs more touches. Using him more in the red zone might help New Orleans do a better job finishing drives — the Saints are 21st in the NFL in red-zone offense, while the Rams’ defense is No. 12 in defending that area of field.

No matter where on the gridiron the Saints’ offense is, they must block Aaron Donald. LA's superstar lineman has just six sacks on the season, but he still demands the attention of double-teams and game plans to keep him from wrecking an offense. The Saints OL has protected Carr fairly well (29 sacks allowed) and, because of their struggles to run the ball, Carr will likely face a number of third-and-longs — situations when Donald can be especially disruptive. 

The Saints away from their dome home are always a dicey bet. The Rams look lethal on offense. Count on Kyren Willams to post a big rushing day and the Saints’ issues in red-zone scoring to persist. Los Angeles 28, New Orleans 20.