NFL Draft 2024 challenge: Put your money where your mock is!

Quarterback Jayden Daniels throws a pass to Malik Nabors as the LSU Tigers take down Alabama 32-31 at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, LA ,Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022.  Lsu Vs Alabama Football 3 2273
Quarterback Jayden Daniels throws a pass to Malik Nabors as the LSU Tigers take down Alabama 32-31 at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, LA ,Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022. Lsu Vs Alabama Football 3 2273

As the 2024 NFL Draft looms with a Thursday 8 p.m. start, draftniks everywhere are poring over late clues on X by Adam Schefter to update there last-minute mock. All that work for what? Maybe they can win The Huddle Report championship, which has graded mock drafts for more than two decades.

 

We will get back to The Huddle Report and tap into some of the top current online draft gurus who were on the NFL Draft Scout team that dominated internet draft coverage on numerous sites, especially CBS Sports and NFL.com.

 

Getting back to the present, let's issue a challenge to the growing universe of draftnick mockers. Unlike NFL teams for which this is an expensive exercise, draftnik mockers get away with some pretty outrageous predictions and incur no consequence except for a perceived loss of credibility ... or is that loss of perceived credibility?

 

Regardless, here’s a challenge to mockers everywhere: Put your money where your mock is!

 

Our Vegas friends BetOnline will reward your expertise if you are willing to put some coin on the accuracy of your predictions. There are numerous props, but we'll just go with the odds on each of the first 10 picks.

 

The most overwhelming favorite is at No. 1, where USC quarterback Caleb Williams is 1/500, followed by LSU QB Jayden Daniels (33/1, -500) and North Carolina QB Drake Maye (40/1). We list all the top-10 draft-pick odds at the bottom, for your consideration.

 

Hint: The first spot where the favorite is not an overwhelming favorite is No. 5, topped by LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers.

 

That is exactly where NFL Draft Scout has him rated, of course.

 

Getting back to the ever-growing mockathon craze. NFL Draft Scout does have an ascending star in Jeremy Bissett, who posted his first round and all seven rounds for each team.

 

 

A family get-together 

 

Historically, NFL Draft Scout and its extended football family (including The Sports Xchange) featured some of the best in the biz: Dane Brugler (Sr. draft guru for The Athletic and author of "The Beast," best draft guide ever), Chad Reuter (Sr. analyst with NFL.com), Rob Rang (draft analyst with FOX), Howard Balzer (co-host of Sirius radio's Pro Football Hall of Fame show), Ric Serritella (All Access/NFL Draft Bible thumper on Substack), Jay Glazer (NFL Insider with FOX Sports) and Kevin Demoff (president of the L.A. Rams, in charge of Kroenke team and media operations).

 

Except for Glazer and Demoff, they all still mock. Balzer is moving to a new online site and isn't mocking this year. The talkative Glazer does his version verbally—what a shock!. As for Demoff, whom we stole for a short time during and after he earned a master's degree at Harvard, he is included just to show off. Hell, he could be the next NFL Commish.

 

That's also not including the great Brian "Hitman" Hitterman, the draft/player savant whose arrival in ~1998 launched NFL Draft Scout research to epic levels. Brian can recite the history, measurements, success/failure of just about any football player this century. He tracked em al.. Brian is doing that right now on draftscout.com, analyzing more than 14,000 CFP players who are currently active. Oh, and about 3,500 coming out of high school. He is too deep into reality than to bother with a mock. 

 

We decided to get together the old gang for a 2024 mock party, right back here on NFL Draft Scout, where they launched their online careers. We can no longer afford them, so we will bring them together with the magic of the internet. We will link to their current mocks. 

 

—Brugler's 257-man mock is here. As of this writing late Wednesday he did not offer in final mock for the year. He is a social media darling, so it will be easy to find.

 

—Reuter has this version of a seven-round mock.

 

—Rang, who still teaches in the northwest and does some professional scouting, posted this on FOX.

 

—Serritella, a marketing genius who covers football from every angle, posted his mock on Substack.

 

OK, party's over. Thanks guys. The check is NOT in the mail.

 

 

An existential question

 

Now, we have a rather basic question: What the hell is a mock draft? Does a mocker attempt to predict what will happen, or lecture on what should happen. Small but important detail, eh? 

 

Robby Esch, who launched The Huddle Report two decades ago, danced around that question, even as he created this formula for grading mock drafts: "Score (S) = (P) Players placed in first round 1pt +  Player matched to team (M) 2pt."

 

As for the reigning champion, peThe Huddle Report, three mockers tied for first last year with 45 points (see formula): Sean Green ("Sports Gambling Podcast"), Sam Teets ("Sports Talk with Sam Teets") and Brad Spielberger (Pro Football Focus)

 

But for sustained best guesswork as mockers, two men each averaged 43.6 points over the last five years: Brendan Donahue ("Sharp Football Analysis") and Eddie Brown (The San Diego Union-Tribune). 

 

Here is Donahue's 2024 mock, and Brown, representing that quaint medium that endangers forests, offered this 2024 mock

 

Let's move to the play for pay mockery. Here are some of the props at BetOnline.

 

Let's see how creative your picks are with money on the line. 

 

 

1st Overall Pick 2024 NFL Draft  

Caleb Williams

1/500

 

 

Jayden Daniels

33/1

 

 

Drake Maye

40/1

 

 

J.J. McCarthy

100/1

 

 

Marvin Harrison Jr.

100/1

 

 

Bo Nix

 

150/1

 

 

Michael Penix Jr,

150/1

 

 

       

 

Number 2 Overall Pick

   

 

Jayden Daniels

1/5

(-500)

 

Drake Maye

13/4

(+325)

 

J.J. McCarthy

10/1

 

 

Caleb Williams

100/1

 

 

Marvin Harrison Jr.

100/1

 

 

Bo Nix

 

150/1

 

 

Malik Nabers

150/1

 

 

Michael Penix Jr,

150/1

 

 

       

 

Number 3 Overall Pick

   

 

Drake Maye

1/3

(-300)

 

J.J. McCarthy

17/4

(+425)

 

Jayden Daniels

9/2

(+450)

 

Marvin Harrison Jr.

25/1

 

 

Caleb Williams

100/1

 

 

Joe Alt

 

100/1

 

 

Malik Nabers

100/1

 

 

Michael Penix Jr,

100/1

 

 

Bo Nix

 

150/1

 

 

       

 

Number 4 Overall Pick

   

 

Marvin Harrison Jr

1/2

(-200)

 

J.J. McCarthy

17/4

(+425)

 

Drake Maye

11/2

(+550)

 

Malik Nabers

14/1

 

 

Jayden Daniels

16/1

 

 

Rome Odunze

66/1

 

 

Joe Alt

 

80/1

 

 

Dallas Turner

100/1

 

 

Olu Fashanu

125/1

 

 

Taliese Fuaga

125/1

 

 

Bo Nix

 

150/1

 

 

Michael Penix Jr.

150/1

 

 

       

 

Number 5 Overall Pick

   

 

Malik Nabers

11/4

(+275)

 

Joe Alt

 

3/1

 

 

Marvin Harrison Jr

7/2

(+350)

 

J.J. McCarthy

4/1

 

 

J.C. Latham

14/1

 

 

Drake Maye

22/1

 

 

Jayden Daniels

22/1

 

 

Rome Odunze

25/1

 

 

Brock Bowers

50/1

 

 

Dallas Turner

50/1

 

 

Taliese Fuaga

50/1

 

 

Olu Fashanu

66/1

 

 

       

 

Number 6 Overall Pick

   

 

Malik Nabers

3/2

(+150)

 

Rome Odunze

3/1

 

 

J.J. McCarthy

11/2

(+550)

 

Joe Alt

 

6/1

 

 

Marvin Harrison Jr

12/1

 

 

Drake Maye

25/1

 

 

Jayden Daniels

25/1

 

 

Brock Bowers

33/1

 

 

Quinyon Mitchell

40/1

 

 

Taliese Fuaga

40/1

 

 

Olu Fashanu

50/1

 

 

J.C. Latham

55/1

 

 

Michael Penix Jr

66/1

 

 

Terrion Arnold

66/1

 

 

Bo Nix

 

100/1

 

 

Dallas Turner

100/1

 

 

Amarius Mims

125/1

 

 

Brian Thomas Jr

125/1

 

 

Jared Verse

150/1

 

 

Nate Wiggins

150/1

 

 

Xavier Worthy

150/1

 

 

       

 

Number 7 Overall Pick

   

 

Joe Alt

 

2/3

(-150)

 

Rome Odunze

11/2

(+550)

 

Malik Nabers

10/1

 

 

J.C. Latham

16/1

 

 

Taliese Fuaga

16/1

 

 

J.J. McCarthy

25/1

 

 

Olu Fashanu

25/1

 

 

Brock Bowers

28/1

 

 

Dallas Turner

33/1

 

 

Amarius Mims

40/1

 

 

Troy Fautanu

40/1

 

 

Jared Verse

66/1

 

 

Marvin Harrison Jr

66/1

 

 

Jayden Daniels

80/1

 

 

Brian Thomas Jr

100/1

 

 

Drake Maye

100/1

 

 

Quinyon Mitchell

100/1

 

 

Terrion Arnold

100/1

 

 

Bo Nix

 

150/1

 

 

Byron Murphy

150/1

 

 

Chop Robinson

150/1

 

 

Cooper DeJean

150/1

 

 

Edgerrin Cooper

150/1

 

 

Jer'Zhan Newton

150/1

 

 

Laiatu Latu

150/1

 

 

Michael Penix Jr

150/1

 

 

Nate Wiggins

150/1

 

 

Tyler Guyton

150/1

 

 

Xavier Worthy

150/1

 

 

       

 

Number 8 Overall Pick

   

 

Laiatu Latu

9/4

(+225)

 

Dallas Turner

3/1

 

 

Byron Murphy

5/1

 

 

Rome Odunze

6/1

 

 

Quinyon Mitchell

14/1

 

 

J.J. McCarthy

18/1

 

 

Jared Verse

22/1

 

 

Malik Nabers

25/1

 

 

Terrion Arnold

33/1

 

 

Brock Bowers

40/1

 

 

Joe Alt

 

40/1

 

 

Michael Penix Jr

66/1

 

 

Nate Wiggins

75/1

 

 

Bo Nix

 

80/1

 

 

Amarius Mims

100/1

 

 

Brian Thomas Jr

100/1

 

 

Chop Robinson

100/1

 

 

Cooper DeJean

100/1

 

 

J.C. Latham

100/1

 

 

Jer'Zhan Newton

100/1

 

 

Olu Fashanu

100/1

 

 

Taliese Fuaga

100/1

 

 

Troy Fautanu

100/1

 

 

Xavier Worthy

100/1

 

 

       

 

Number 9 Overall Pick

   

 

Byron Murphy

3/2

(+150)

 

Rome Odunze

7/2

(+350)

 

Joe Alt

 

5/1

 

 

Brock Bowers

11/1

 

 

Jared Verse

12/1

 

 

Dallas Turner

14/1

 

 

Laiatu Latu

16/1

 

 

Malik Nabers

22/1

 

 

Olu Fashanu

25/1

 

 

Taliese Fuaga

25/1

 

 

J.C. Latham

28/1

 

 

J.J. McCarthy

33/1

 

 

Troy Fautanu

45/1

 

 

Jer'Zhan Newton

80/1

 

 

Quinyon Mitchell

80/1

 

 

Terrion Arnold

80/1

 

 

Brian Thomas Jr

100/1

 

 

Michael Penix Jr

100/1

 

 

Amarius Mims

125/1

 

 

Bo Nix

 

125/1

 

 

Cooper DeJean

150/1

 

 

Nate Wiggins

150/1

 

 

Xavier Worthy

150/1

 

 

       

 

Number 10 Overall Pick

   

 

Brock Bowers

3/2

(+150)

 

Joe Alt

 

6/1

 

 

Taliese Fuaga

10/1

 

 

Troy Fautanu

10/1

 

 

Laiatu Latu

12/1

 

 

Olu Fashanu

12/1

 

 

Rome Odunze

12/1

 

 

J.C. Latham

14/1

 

 

Byron Murphy

20/1

 

 

Dallas Turner

28/1

 

 

Brian Thomas Jr

33/1

 

 

J.J. McCarthy

35/1

 

 

Malik Nabers

35/1

 

 

Quinyon Mitchell

35/1

 

 

Terrion Arnold

40/1

 

 

Amarius Mims

50/1

 

 

Bo Nix

 

50/1

 

 

Jared Verse

50/1

 

 

Michael Penix Jr

66/1

 

 

Blake Corum

100/1

 

 

Cooper DeJean

100/1

 

 

Edgerrin Cooper

100/1

 

 

Graham Barton

100/1

 

 

Jackson Powers-Johnson

100/1

 

 

Jer'Zhan Newton

100/1

 

 

Kool-Aid McKinstry

100/1

 

 

Nate Wiggins

100/1

 

 

Tyler Guyton

100/1

 

 

Xavier Worthy

100/1

 

 

           

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